On October 18 the refinance rate will amount to 11% per annum
The Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus made a decision to reduce the refinance rate on October 18, 2017 from 11.5% to 11% per annum based on the results of the quarterly meeting on the issues of assessing and forecasting situation in the economy and monetary sphere which took place on September 27.
Inflationary processes continue to slow down. In August 2017, the increase in consumer prices fell to 5.3% in annual terms. The goods which are not subject to seasonal influence and administrative regulation make a major contribution to the slowdown in annual growth rates of consumer prices.
The share of goods in the consumer basket, which prices grew by less than 5% in annual terms, increased to 63% in August 2017 (about 30% a year earlier).
With regard to the actual dynamics of inflation, it is expected that the growth in consumer prices will be lower at year-end 2017 than predicted earlier – closer to 6%.
As before, significant risks of strengthening inflationary pressures on the part of the balance of payments in the medium term are not observed.
The growth rate of money supply remains at a moderate level (the average broad money supply growth in August 2017 in annual terms totaled 9%).
The preservation of certain inflationary risks is associated with a fairly high level of inflation expectations in the economy, as well as the increase in the share of the active component in the structure of the ruble money supply.
Further decisions on changing the National Bank’s interest rates will be determined by the probability and magnitude of implementing inflationary risks that restrain the achievement of the medium-term inflation target (no more than 5% in 2020).